As of 04:19 BST

Weather in Chapel Hill

+10°

Chapel Hill, Thursday, 8 October, 04:19

Clear sky. Feels like 6°C. High 15°C, low 9°C.

Pressure1021 mb

Wind17 mph NW

Humidity79%

Visibility6.2 mi

Dew point6°C

Detailed hourly forecast

The month ahead in Chapel Hill: daytime temperatures averaging +15.4° and +12.1° overnight — that is 1.7° above the climate average for October. Rain is expected on 8 days (around 67 mm), against a normal of 8 days and 55 mm. The warmest day should be 13 October (+17.3°), the coolest 17 October (+7.7°).

+15.4°/+12.1°

Average day / night

+1.7°

Above average

8 / 8

Wet days / normal

67 mm

Rainfall this month

Ten-day blocks against the climate average

Period	Forecast (day)	Average	Difference
8 October – 17 October	+15°	+14°	+1°
18 October – 27 October	+15.9°	+13.1°	+2.8°
28 October – 6 November	near average	+12.2°	—

October records over 66 years

+19.5°1 October 2011All-time high

-2.8°30 October 2018All-time low

Climate averages and records are calculated from the nearest reference point — Neyland (7.2 km away).

Fri, 09+13 ° /17 °

2.4

+17 °

Chapel Hill, Friday, 9 October

Light rain. High 17°C, low 13°C.

Pressure1012 mb

Wind25 mph W

Humidity91%

Visibility2.4 mi

Dew point15°C

Sat, 10+12 ° /14 °

+14 °

Chapel Hill, Saturday, 10 October

Partly cloudy. High 14°C, low 12°C.

Pressure1016 mb

Wind21 mph NW

Humidity68%

Visibility6.2 mi

Dew point8°C

Sun, 11+11 ° /14 °

+14 °

Chapel Hill, Sunday, 11 October

Overcast. High 14°C, low 11°C.

Pressure1016 mb

Wind5 mph W

Humidity65%

Visibility6.2 mi

Dew point7°C

Mon, 12+15 ° /17 °

+17 °

Chapel Hill, Monday, 12 October

Rain. High 17°C, low 15°C.

Pressure1012 mb

Wind23 mph S

Humidity94%

Visibility—

Dew point16°C

Tue, 13+14 ° /17 °

2.6

+17 °

Chapel Hill, Tuesday, 13 October

Light rain. High 17°C, low 14°C.

Pressure1020 mb

Wind22 mph SW

Humidity94%

Visibility—

Dew point16°C

Wed, 14+13 ° /15 °

0.1

+15 °

Chapel Hill, Wednesday, 14 October

Light rain. High 15°C, low 13°C.

Pressure1022 mb

Wind19 mph S

Humidity79%

Visibility—

Dew point12°C

Thu, 15+10 ° /15 °

10.5

+15 °

Chapel Hill, Thursday, 15 October

Rain. High 15°C, low 10°C.

Pressure1017 mb

Wind32 mph N

Humidity73%

Visibility—

Dew point7°C

Fri, 16+10 ° /13 °

+13 °

Chapel Hill, Friday, 16 October

Mainly clear. High 13°C, low 10°C.

Pressure1025 mb

Wind22 mph N

Humidity55%

Visibility—

Dew point4°C

Sat, 17+8 ° /12 °

4.2

+12 °

Chapel Hill, Saturday, 17 October

Rain. High 12°C, low 8°C.

Pressure1021 mb

Wind13 mph NE

Humidity60%

Visibility—

Dew point4°C

Sun, 18+9 ° /15 °

+15 °

Chapel Hill, Sunday, 18 October

Rain. High 15°C, low 9°C.

Pressure1014 mb

Wind23 mph S

Humidity91%

Visibility—

Dew point13°C

Mon, 19+13 ° /15 °

0.8

+15 °

Chapel Hill, Monday, 19 October

Light rain. High 15°C, low 13°C.

Pressure1017 mb

Wind14 mph SE

Humidity84%

Visibility—

Dew point12°C

Tue, 20+15 ° /17 °

1.4

+17 °

Chapel Hill, Tuesday, 20 October

Light rain. High 17°C, low 15°C.

Pressure1017 mb

Wind24 mph SE

Humidity88%

Visibility—

Dew point14°C

Wed, 21+15 ° /17 °

+17 °

Chapel Hill, Wednesday, 21 October

Overcast. High 17°C, low 15°C.

Pressure1014 mb

Wind27 mph SE

Humidity82%

Visibility—

Dew point13°C

Thu, 22+14 ° /16 °

+16 °

Chapel Hill, Thursday, 22 October

Overcast. High 16°C, low 14°C.

Pressure1011 mb

Wind25 mph E

Humidity81%

Visibility—

Dew point12°C

Fri, 23+12 ° /16 °

+16 °

Chapel Hill, Friday, 23 October

Partly cloudy. High 16°C, low 12°C.

Pressure1016 mb

Wind22 mph E

Humidity71%

Visibility—

Dew point10°C

Days 17 onward are based on 60-year climate statistics

Sat, 24+10 ° /13 °

5.3

+13 °

Chapel Hill, Saturday, 24 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high13°C

Average low10°C

Average rainfall5.3 mm

Chance of rain58%

Warmest on record+17° (1995)

Coldest on record+5° (1987)

Sun, 25+10 ° /13 °

3.9

+13 °

Chapel Hill, Sunday, 25 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high13°C

Average low10°C

Average rainfall3.9 mm

Chance of rain53%

Warmest on record+16° (2022)

Coldest on record+4° (2010)

Mon, 26+10 ° /13 °

3.4

+13 °

Chapel Hill, Monday, 26 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high13°C

Average low10°C

Average rainfall3.4 mm

Chance of rain53%

Warmest on record+17° (2005)

Coldest on record+6° (2012)

Tue, 27+10 ° /13 °

4.2

+13 °

Chapel Hill, Tuesday, 27 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high13°C

Average low10°C

Average rainfall4.2 mm

Chance of rain57%

Warmest on record+18° (2005)

Coldest on record+4° (2019)

Wed, 28+10 ° /13 °

+13 °

Chapel Hill, Wednesday, 28 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high13°C

Average low10°C

Average rainfall4 mm

Chance of rain62%

Warmest on record+17° (2022)

Coldest on record+3° (2018)

Thu, 29+10 ° /12 °

3.8

+12 °

Chapel Hill, Thursday, 29 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high12°C

Average low10°C

Average rainfall3.8 mm

Chance of rain53%

Warmest on record+17° (2022)

Coldest on record+0° (2018)

Fri, 30+10 ° /13 °

4.5

+13 °

Chapel Hill, Friday, 30 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high13°C

Average low10°C

Average rainfall4.5 mm

Chance of rain58%

Warmest on record+16° (2005)

Coldest on record-3° (2018)

Sat, 31+10 ° /13 °

4.8

+13 °

Chapel Hill, Saturday, 31 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high13°C

Average low10°C

Average rainfall4.8 mm

Chance of rain65%

Warmest on record+17° (2014)

Coldest on record+5° (1966)

Sun, 01+9 ° /12 °

4.2

+12 °

Chapel Hill, Sunday, 1 November

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high12°C

Average low9°C

Average rainfall4.2 mm

Chance of rain58%

Warmest on record+16° (2009)

Coldest on record+3° (2018)

Mon, 02+9 ° /12 °

4.3

+12 °

Chapel Hill, Monday, 2 November

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high12°C

Average low9°C

Average rainfall4.3 mm

Chance of rain62%

Warmest on record+16° (2005)

Coldest on record+0° (2018)

Tue, 03+9 ° /12 °

3.4

+12 °

Chapel Hill, Tuesday, 3 November

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high12°C

Average low9°C

Average rainfall3.4 mm

Chance of rain58%

Warmest on record+15° (2011)

Coldest on record+3° (1980)

Wed, 04+9 ° /12 °

+12 °

Chapel Hill, Wednesday, 4 November

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high12°C

Average low9°C

Average rainfall3 mm

Chance of rain50%

Warmest on record+15° (2010)

Coldest on record+3° (2020)

Thu, 05+9 ° /12 °

3.5

+12 °

Chapel Hill, Thursday, 5 November

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high12°C

Average low9°C

Average rainfall3.5 mm

Chance of rain53%

Warmest on record+17° (2025)

Coldest on record+3° (2020)

Fri, 06+9 ° /12 °

3.3

+12 °

Chapel Hill, Friday, 6 November

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high12°C

Average low9°C

Average rainfall3.3 mm

Chance of rain43%

Warmest on record+15° (2025)

Coldest on record+4° (2017)

Questions about the month ahead

How accurate is a month-long forecast?

The first 16 days come from weather models — highly reliable for the first 3–5 days, gradually less so after that. Days 17 to 30 for Chapel Hill are built from climate averages over the last 60 years, so they show typical weather for those dates rather than a specific forecast.

What does "above average" mean?

We compare the forecast with the climate average for exactly the same calendar days, calculated from 60 years of observations. The difference shows how the coming month compares with a typical one.

Where do the 66-year records come from?

These are real historical extremes recorded in Chapel Hill since 1960: the highest and lowest temperature for each calendar date, with the year it happened.

How often is the 30-day forecast updated?

The forecast portion refreshes every hour. The climate portion is based on long-term data and stays stable.