As of 20:33 BST

Weather in Lower Swell

+9°

Lower Swell, Wednesday, 7 October, 20:33

Clear sky. Feels like 8°C. High 13°C, low 9°C.

Pressure1016 mb

Wind5 mph N

Humidity82%

Visibility6.2 mi

Dew point6°C

Detailed hourly forecast

The month ahead in Lower Swell: daytime temperatures averaging +13.7° and +7.1° overnight — that is 0.1° above the climate average for October. Rain is expected on 9 days (around 37 mm), against a normal of 6 days and 36 mm. The warmest day should be 15 October (+16.9°), the coolest 21 October (+3.8°).

+13.7°/+7.1°

Average day / night

+0.1°

Above average

9 / 6

Wet days / normal

37 mm

Rainfall this month

Ten-day blocks against the climate average

Period	Forecast (day)	Average	Difference
7 October – 16 October	+14.7°	+14.1°	+0.6°
17 October – 26 October	+12.1°	+12.7°	-0.6°
27 October – 5 November	near average	+11.5°	—

October records over 66 years

+25.2°1 October 2011All-time high

-3.6°29 October 1997All-time low

Climate averages and records are calculated from the nearest reference point — Northleach (12.3 km away).

Thu, 08+7 ° /15 °

0.4

+15 °

Lower Swell, Thursday, 8 October

Light rain. High 15°C, low 7°C.

Pressure1023 mb

Wind13 mph NW

Humidity59%

Visibility6.2 mi

Dew point4°C

Fri, 09+10 ° /16 °

2.2

+16 °

Lower Swell, Friday, 9 October

Light rain. High 16°C, low 10°C.

Pressure1011 mb

Wind18 mph SW

Humidity90%

Visibility5.7 mi

Dew point14°C

Sat, 10+8 ° /13 °

+13 °

Lower Swell, Saturday, 10 October

Mainly clear. High 13°C, low 8°C.

Pressure1012 mb

Wind18 mph W

Humidity61%

Visibility6.2 mi

Dew point5°C

Sun, 11+6 ° /13 °

+13 °

Lower Swell, Sunday, 11 October

Overcast. High 13°C, low 6°C.

Pressure1014 mb

Wind9 mph W

Humidity67%

Visibility6.2 mi

Dew point6°C

Mon, 12+7 ° /16 °

1.5

+16 °

Lower Swell, Monday, 12 October

Light rain. High 16°C, low 7°C.

Pressure1013 mb

Wind15 mph S

Humidity92%

Visibility—

Dew point13°C

Tue, 13+9 ° /16 °

+16 °

Lower Swell, Tuesday, 13 October

Light rain. High 16°C, low 9°C.

Pressure1020 mb

Wind18 mph SW

Humidity77%

Visibility—

Dew point11°C

Wed, 14+7 ° /16 °

+16 °

Lower Swell, Wednesday, 14 October

Clear sky. High 16°C, low 7°C.

Pressure1031 mb

Wind9 mph SW

Humidity59%

Visibility—

Dew point7°C

Thu, 15+8 ° /17 °

+17 °

Lower Swell, Thursday, 15 October

Overcast. High 17°C, low 8°C.

Pressure1020 mb

Wind16 mph SW

Humidity56%

Visibility—

Dew point7°C

Fri, 16+5 ° /13 °

+13 °

Lower Swell, Friday, 16 October

Overcast. High 13°C, low 5°C.

Pressure1026 mb

Wind5 mph SE

Humidity58%

Visibility—

Dew point3°C

Sat, 17+9 ° /13 °

2.9

+13 °

Lower Swell, Saturday, 17 October

Light rain. High 13°C, low 9°C.

Pressure1012 mb

Wind9 mph S

Humidity93%

Visibility—

Dew point12°C

Sun, 18+7 ° /14 °

+14 °

Lower Swell, Sunday, 18 October

Overcast. High 14°C, low 7°C.

Pressure1013 mb

Wind19 mph S

Humidity73%

Visibility—

Dew point7°C

Mon, 19+7 ° /14 °

+14 °

Lower Swell, Monday, 19 October

Rain. High 14°C, low 7°C.

Pressure1000 mb

Wind22 mph SW

Humidity74%

Visibility—

Dew point7°C

Tue, 20+7 ° /9 °

1.5

+9 °

Lower Swell, Tuesday, 20 October

Light rain. High 9°C, low 7°C.

Pressure998 mb

Wind16 mph SW

Humidity79%

Visibility—

Dew point5°C

Wed, 21+4 ° /10 °

2.6

+10 °

Lower Swell, Wednesday, 21 October

Light rain. High 10°C, low 4°C.

Pressure1006 mb

Wind11 mph W

Humidity71%

Visibility—

Dew point4°C

Thu, 22+4 ° /11 °

5.6

+11 °

Lower Swell, Thursday, 22 October

Rain. High 11°C, low 4°C.

Pressure1008 mb

Wind20 mph SE

Humidity68%

Visibility—

Dew point5°C

Days 17 onward are based on 60-year climate statistics

Fri, 23+7 ° /13 °

1.6

+13 °

Lower Swell, Friday, 23 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high13°C

Average low7°C

Average rainfall1.6 mm

Chance of rain28%

Warmest on record+17° (2011)

Coldest on record0° (1981)

Sat, 24+7 ° /13 °

2.5

+13 °

Lower Swell, Saturday, 24 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high13°C

Average low7°C

Average rainfall2.5 mm

Chance of rain40%

Warmest on record+17° (1996)

Coldest on record-1° (1964)

Sun, 25+7 ° /12 °

1.6

+12 °

Lower Swell, Sunday, 25 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high12°C

Average low7°C

Average rainfall1.6 mm

Chance of rain33%

Warmest on record+17° (2013)

Coldest on record-2° (2010)

Mon, 26+7 ° /13 °

1.7

+13 °

Lower Swell, Monday, 26 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high13°C

Average low7°C

Average rainfall1.7 mm

Chance of rain37%

Warmest on record+17° (1988)

Coldest on record-2° (1997)

Tue, 27+7 ° /12 °

1.9

+12 °

Lower Swell, Tuesday, 27 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high12°C

Average low7°C

Average rainfall1.9 mm

Chance of rain37%

Warmest on record+19° (2005)

Coldest on record-2° (1962)

Wed, 28+7 ° /12 °

2.3

+12 °

Lower Swell, Wednesday, 28 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high12°C

Average low7°C

Average rainfall2.3 mm

Chance of rain42%

Warmest on record+18° (2014)

Coldest on record+0° (2003)

Thu, 29+6 ° /12 °

1.7

+12 °

Lower Swell, Thursday, 29 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high12°C

Average low6°C

Average rainfall1.7 mm

Chance of rain30%

Warmest on record+19° (2022)

Coldest on record-4° (1997)

Fri, 30+6 ° /12 °

+12 °

Lower Swell, Friday, 30 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high12°C

Average low6°C

Average rainfall2 mm

Chance of rain37%

Warmest on record+18° (2001)

Coldest on record-2° (1997)

Sat, 31+7 ° /12 °

3.1

+12 °

Lower Swell, Saturday, 31 October

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high12°C

Average low7°C

Average rainfall3.1 mm

Chance of rain38%

Warmest on record+19° (2014)

Coldest on record-2° (2018)

Sun, 01+6 ° /12 °

2.2

+12 °

Lower Swell, Sunday, 1 November

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high12°C

Average low6°C

Average rainfall2.2 mm

Chance of rain40%

Warmest on record+16° (2014)

Coldest on record-1° (1988)

Mon, 02+6 ° /11 °

3.6

+11 °

Lower Swell, Monday, 2 November

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high11°C

Average low6°C

Average rainfall3.6 mm

Chance of rain38%

Warmest on record+16° (2005)

Coldest on record-2° (2006)

Tue, 03+6 ° /11 °

1.6

+11 °

Lower Swell, Tuesday, 3 November

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high11°C

Average low6°C

Average rainfall1.6 mm

Chance of rain33%

Warmest on record+15° (1994)

Coldest on record-3° (1985)

Wed, 04+5 ° /10 °

2.2

+10 °

Lower Swell, Wednesday, 4 November

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high10°C

Average low5°C

Average rainfall2.2 mm

Chance of rain38%

Warmest on record+15° (1978)

Coldest on record-3° (1966)

Thu, 05+5 ° /10 °

2.1

+10 °

Lower Swell, Thursday, 5 November

Climate average for this date — the mean of the last 60 years.

Average high10°C

Average low5°C

Average rainfall2.1 mm

Chance of rain30%

Warmest on record+16° (2025)

Coldest on record-2° (1988)

Questions about the month ahead

How accurate is a month-long forecast?

The first 16 days come from weather models — highly reliable for the first 3–5 days, gradually less so after that. Days 17 to 30 for Lower Swell are built from climate averages over the last 60 years, so they show typical weather for those dates rather than a specific forecast.

What does "above average" mean?

We compare the forecast with the climate average for exactly the same calendar days, calculated from 60 years of observations. The difference shows how the coming month compares with a typical one.

Where do the 66-year records come from?

These are real historical extremes recorded in Lower Swell since 1960: the highest and lowest temperature for each calendar date, with the year it happened.

How often is the 30-day forecast updated?

The forecast portion refreshes every hour. The climate portion is based on long-term data and stays stable.